Canada’s most recent inflation data isn’t shaking up the mortgage rate landscape just yet. Headline inflation is holding steady near 3% as we move through mid-Q3, and the central bank’s preferred core measures are still hovering around their 2% target. That’s a sign that, for now, underlying pressures are contained and energy price spikes haven’t spread further. Gasoline prices have stayed in the low-20% yearly range—down a touch from earlier in Q3—while food inflation has cooled to about 3%, the lowest it’s been since late 2024. Some market watchers may have reacted a bit strongly, especially since Canada’s 2-year government bond yield jumped more than 40 basis points leading up to this report. Most major-bank economists still expect the central bank to hold rates through 2026, though there are still risks at play: persistent energy costs, a recovering economy, and ongoing tariff questions could all shift the outlook. As someone who focuses on helping clients navigate the mortgage process with clarity and confidence, I keep a close eye on these developments so you can move forward with a solid, well-informed plan.
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